Table 1 The progression of five phases of technological transitions with feature description (adapted from IEA 2015; Kemp and Rotmans 2005; Kivimaa et al. 2019; Loorbach and Shiroyama 2016; Rotmans et al. 2001)
Phases | Definition | Feature description | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Technology maturity and the scale of market uptake | Cost-effectiveness | Stakeholder attitude | ||
Predevelopment | A dynamic equilibrium where the status quo does not visibly change, but experimentation takes place. | ■ Basic R&D; prototype; demonstration projects; patent development | ■ Costs remain high | ■ Initial expert interest in technology |
Take-off | The process of change gets underway and the state of the system begins to shift. | ■ Applied R&D – focusing on cost reduction and technology performance | ■ Technology is feasible but high-cost gap | ■ Growing expert interest in technology |
Breakthrough | Novel niches start to build up. | ■ Applied R&D – emergence of business models; small companies ■ Emergence of a niche market | ■ High-cost gap remains, but achieve cost-effectiveness under specific conditions | ■ Initial public interest |
Acceleration | Changes further speed up, with structural changes taking place in a visible way. | ■ Technologies still under-utilized. Some non-economic barriers, such as social and institutional ones, stall their uptake ■ Market remains a minor share ■ Diverse and rapid growth of new business models which are more customer-oriented | ■ Technologies are progressively approaching widespread cost-competitiveness ■ Rapid pace of cost reduction due to market expansion and penetration | ■ Increasing acceptance by utilities and communities |
Stabilization | The speed of social change decreases and a new dynamic equilibrium is reached. | ■ Technology is mature ■ Margin increase in market uptake; new installations slow down; any new increases may be additional or replacement ■ Mass-market exists; the supply chain is well established; consolidation of the industry structure | ■ Cost-effective gains due to economies of scale | ■ Technology becomes a part of people’s daily lives (integration) ■ Market and regulatory frameworks already adapted to the characteristics of the technology ■ Declining policy support |